There was a discussion in the media about the number of ministers in the upcoming coalition government, between Futuro & AVP.

The previous cabinet of Evelyn Wever Croes II had 8 ministers on Aruba, including the Prime Minister, plus one in the Netherlands. A recent election promise stated there will be 7, not 9, in the next cabinet.

We will be saving money, they promised.

With the ongoing talks of government composition, this will be the first test. Will formadors stick to their election promise, or will they succumb to pressure from within — their own members insisting they are entitled to a seat at the table.

If we have 7 ministries, then some will undergo a merge. If formadors decide they have no choice but install 9, then 3 go to Futuro and 6 to AVP, including a Prime Minister, then Cicilia, 4,894 votes, De Meza, 1,476 votes, Dowers, 1,076, Sevinger, 1,347 votes, and Wyatt-Ras, 652 votes.

Cicilia: How he got that many votes is a mystery, up 914.4% since 2021.

Sevinger: She is an unknown entity. These are votes of loyal, blind, followers of her father.

Will Mike Eman want to be prime minister, 5,277 votes, down 20.9%, or we should instead have a professional serving his people? Well respected individuals such as Jossy Lacle? Angel Bermudez? Fredis Rafunjol? Or a favorite, trusted public figure Tisa LaSorte, who is a woman with an impeccable pedigree being the daughter of the late Oscar Henriquez who was Commissioner of Finance, Economic Affairs and Tourism. They are people with diverse, successful histories.

Mike Eman failed as a leader in the private and public sector, from AVP to EMCO to ATV, he could not keep a company together. He could not keep his party together.

As a prime minister we used to say he had authority within the party, that he controlled his ministers until he did not. And the fact that he personally moved to #29 on the list because none of the dinosaurs would make room for a newbie proves he has ZERO power and influence within his own environment.

In the cabinet of Evelyn Wever Croes II, she recruited a number of family members to support her in the challenging job, one as minister of Labor, Integration and Energy, and the other as minister of Education and Sport.

They disappointed her in their performance. She had to give up Glenbert Croes, and Endy Croes survived – he was among the only ministers whose popularity soared by 65.2%. The Prime Minster saved her skin as politician and left the country on vacation, immediately after being sworn in as parliamentarian in the new government. She did not want to witness the coalition talks, and witness the conciliatory moves of MEP party elders, wanting to appease AVP, and attempt a MEP/AVP coalition.

The importance of the party leader having control over his minions came to light when our government was felled by a secondary controversy. I say secondary, because it should have primarily been dispersed over the unseen, unpublished, LNG contract, earlier in the term, which was approved despite the content remaining a mystery. But, at a time, everyone towed the party line.

In a later case, regarding the candidacy of the president of parliament, individual party members voted their conscience, they rebelled against party line, and were consequently voted out of politics. Had they adhered to party lines, they would have still been employed.

But alas, their conscience instructed them to contradict their own leader. The government collapsed, elections were called, they did not make it back.

I should have known. In a local magazine, printed before our December 6th elections, the RAIZ party list was left out. Was it an oversight, or a forewarning. It said RAIZ, but the names belonged to RED, a minority party, that also failed to perform.

We all lost, stuck with no progressive parties in government.

With all the talk these days of climate change and the effects on us now and in the near future, I think about this paradox.  Many talk about sustainability, acidification of the ocean and the earth heating up, but not in Aruba, tough this would be devastating to a small island state like Aruba.

The paradox is that Aruba’s part in climate change is significant. Each person traveling by airplane from NY causes about 45 times (!) his/her bodyweight in CO2 equivalent emissions (about 3,000 kg or 6,600 lbs).

Aruba’s tourism industry produces 1.2MM x 3,000 kg = 3,600 million kg (or 3.6 million metric tons) CO2 equivalent emissions on a yearly basis.

We need to acknowledge the magnitude or the weight of the problem; Aruba’s tourist flights produce 600,000 elephants or 2,400,000 cars in CO2 emissions yearly.

To significantly reduce Aruba’s CO2 emissions while maintaining its economy the parameter of average stay-over-nights needs to increase. Make people stay longer, give them a reason to extend their trips…. There are many other areas for improvement, but the most important/effective variable would be the number of flights per stayover tourist. This needs to go down by a factor of 2 somehow. Strategies are needed to lengthen stays and discourage short stays, inter-island travel must be encouraged to avoid the need for long-distance travel etc.

Both leaders of the election winning parties, now share the FORMADOR responsibility of putting together the next government. Their judicial and state-security screenings are done, they are fit to rule, and can now assign ministerial portfolios, and give us the socio-economic stability they promised on campaign.

Duality is not a new concept to Aruba, we have two large parties, and one of them, Futuro, has two equally empowered leaders, now we also have two formadors, Gerlien Croes, 4,492 votes, up from 1,919 in 2021, and Mike Eman, 5,277 votes, down from 6,668 in 2021, with instructions from the governor, to do something about the cost of living on the island.

They have until February 18th to deliver the list of ministers and agree on their to-do list.

While Gerlien Croes will be busy in coalition talks with Mike Eman, her fellow party-partner is still burdened by the interim minister responsibilities, occupying the seat of the Minister of Economic Affairs, Communication and Sustainability, for the outgoing team, in charge until the new formation comes in.

That brought to mind a recent article/video/podcast about an Ant Experiment, that proved that ants were superior to humans in a group problem-solving maze experiment.

Ants performed better than people, in a group.

Why?

While people tried to seek consensus and be democratic, and no one dared showing his true nature as a take-over leader for fear of being labeled bully, the ants TOOK TURNS at leadership. One ant at a time was totally in charge and only when her ideas failed, did another ant take her place as the leader of the problem-solving challenge.

The challenge: Who will be better at maneuvering a large load through a maze?

Like moving a bulky grand piano through a narrow door. The internet has a mountain of advice on the subject.

As individuals, humans calculated, and planned strategically, thus easily outperforming the ants.

But as a group, the ants performed better than people, understanding that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They moved the object together, they did not compete with each other; they collaborated in the name of the common good, suppressing their individual egos, and giving it all to the task at hand.

If our leaders can do that, we’re OK.

BUT, as you know humans are competitive, and our two formadors will try to outdo each other, especially when it comes to the job of prime minister. Which of the two will step aside and allow the other to sit on the throne.

Eman is more experienced. He’s been there. He might have learned from his grave mistakes. His heart is in the right place.  He shouldn’t have slashed the BBO, and then raised it, he shouldn’t have left us a mega-debe with his PPP projects, but at the end we have a highway. He saved the pensions of civil servants; he promoted the social dialogue. I did not follow closely during those years, so I do not recall, who did what. But I do remember that the governments of Nel Oduber overspent lavishly, as well. And so did the vulture governments of Evelyn Wever Croes.

Gerlien Croes? I did not follow her closely, she sat on the opposition benches in the former parliament, she is young, educated, and ambitious. She has great hair.  I followed her a bit, on her long dissertations on Magic 96.5FM during campaign, talking to Erin Croes. She speaks well. I guess that is enough to become a prime minister on our tiny island. If she has common sense, she will do fine, and Eman might be desperate enough to agree to make her the head figure. Then voila, a new government will be sworn in at the end of February.

They will have less money to spend because meanwhile, out of the blue, the outgoing team announced a reduction in the income/wage taxes to help improve purchasing power.  A large segment of tax-payers now have more money, by government decree, as the wage tax tariff of 10% was reduced to 0%.

Income between AFL 0 and AFL 30,000 continues to be untaxed (“vrije voet”).

Income between AFL 30,000 and AFL 64,930 had a tariff of 10% which is reduced to 0%.

Consequently, the income between AFL 0 and AFL 64,930 is tax-free, effective January 1, 2025 (retroactive). More people paying less.

Meanwhile Carnival rages on.

In the old days every little house on the island had a garden. Nothing fancy, all local trees, and shrubs. But shade and sometimes fruit, Lime, Tamarin, Mango, Papaya, Soursop, and occasionally Banana, were standard. Coconut trees, grown from coco nuts, grape trees and wild bougainvillea, joined the Aloe plants, the Divi trees and Cactus.

In my neighborhood, recently, a large lot was cleared, to prepare for construction. Shaved is more accurate. Stripped to the bedrock, every tree and blade of grass removed.

An old fashioned caribbean home used to occupy that space, with arches and louvers and a red roof, a modest one story with a wooden gate. It was torn down before the pandemic and the lot lay vacant with some local mature trees on its fringes. Then the bulldozer arrived one Sunday morning in December, last year, and filled two 40-foot dumpsters, having chewed the vegetation up, and scooped up any trace of soil, left over.

The new owner will probably stick in some nursery grown imported palms, and clinker the rest, or if squeezed for cash, he will cement, or Bomanite all surfaces, use colored and stamped ‘decorative’ concrete. He will be congratulating himself on the smart money-saving strategy.

Perhaps you don’t know but I have been house-hunting for the past two weeks and I am astounded at the number of villa neighborhoods in Noord. While we used to enjoy 1,500 M2 lots, they are now down to 300M2, with giant houses, occupying 100% of the space, choked in clinkers and Bomanite.

What happened to gardening? It was replaced by landscaping, that places one starved tree, and two bushes in front of an entrance, and almost nothing in the bare, sun-baked backyard, in the name of a maintenance FREE existence.

There is a lot for sale in the neighborhoods around Noord, and the prices are incredibly high. Locals are offloading the homes that became financial burdens. This is a vicious circle because one must sell high if one wishes to move and buy another, even more expensive, home. The new owners, mostly visitors, offer their updated and upgraded, just-bought digs up, as vacation rentals, and indeed, the majority of these homes, have V cars parked in their concrete, or Bomanite driveways.

We talked about the vacation rental phenomenon already. When I took a drive through the gemstone neighborhoods: Opal, Esmeralda, Ruby, Safir, etc., I began to understand the enormity of the challenge.

I am not against vacation rentals. They are great. Who wouldn’t like to live like an Aruba for a week? But very few Arubans can afford to live in these nice neighborhoods.

Bonaire recently introduced stricter housing regulations for non-residents of the island. The new rules are supposed to make affordable housing more accessible to the local population. The measures include a permit system, according to https://bonaire.nu/ and a self-occupancy obligation. Naturally, there are critics, and the courts will be testing these new rules, if valid, or not.

But kudos to the brave island council that tried to address the issue: You must now be a resident of Bonaire for five years to qualify for a housing permit and the values of houses are capped at 175% of the national mortgage guarantee, which brings them to just over 500k. Homes above this limit, may be purchased without restrictions.

Bonaire residents complained that the new rules were not communicated properly, but advocates reiterated that the aim is to prevent speculation and investment purchases, so that homes still are available for the local population.

I love my garden, the result of decades of consistent maintenance, and emotional investment. The thought that a bulldozer will be unleashed on the giant grape tree, or the oversize Bismark Palm in the name of updates and upgrades, is chilling.

What is said in the media is not always true.

https://batibleki.wheninaruba.com/what-is-said-in-the-media-is-not-always-true/

In memory of Henny Eman

https://batibleki.wheninaruba.com/in-memory-of-henny-eman/

Vacation rental stays were up 32.5% in 2024.

https://batibleki.wheninaruba.com/vacation-rental-stays-were-up-32-5-in-2024/

Carnival is on!

https://batibleki.wheninaruba.com/carnival-is-on/

Mail from Tourism Analytics

https://batibleki.wheninaruba.com/mail-from-tourism-analytics/